Signalberita.com – Global coffee prices remained relatively stable throughout August 2026 after a sharp rally in the middle of the month. Market movements were influenced by weather expectations, inventory levels, and supply developments from major coffee-producing countries.
According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the average Composite Indicator Price stood at 287.29 US cents per pound in August, broadly unchanged from July.
In the futures market, Arabica contracts in New York rose by around 0.9 percent, while Robusta futures in London declined by approximately 3 percent.
Coffee prices rallied between August 17 and 25 amid growing concerns over the possibility of a strong El Niño event and historically low certified Arabica inventories. However, the gains were later reversed toward the end of the month.
Although the global supply outlook has improved, near-term coffee availability remains relatively tight. This is reflected in the backwardation structure of futures markets, indicating continued tightness in nearby supplies.
Vietnam’s Robusta Exports Drive Global Shipment Growth
Global coffee exports in July 2026 were primarily supported by stronger Robusta shipments.
Total exports of coffee in all forms reached 12.23 million bags, up 3.3 percent from the same month a year earlier.
Green Robusta bean exports surged 32 percent to 4.98 million bags. Vietnam was a major contributor to the increase, with its Robusta shipments jumping 87.4 percent to approximately 2.4 million bags.
Overall, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached around 2.83 million bags in July, representing a 43.7 percent increase from the previous year.
Arabica exports, by contrast, declined 8.9 percent, highlighting the widening divergence in supply trends between the two major coffee varieties.
Brazil’s Harvest Puts Pressure on Arabica Prices
Developments in Brazil’s coffee supply have also weighed on Arabica prices.
During the week ending September 4, 2026, Arabica prices fell from 311.05 US cents to 295.60 US cents per pound.
Increased coffee availability from Brazil’s harvest was one of the main bearish factors in the market. Reports also indicated that warehouse capacity was becoming increasingly constrained in some areas.
Limited storage capacity could encourage producers to sell more coffee into the physical market. Brazil’s increased supply is therefore offsetting concerns over low certified Arabica inventories and weather risks affecting future crops.
Colombia’s Coffee Production Expected to Recover
Meanwhile, Colombia’s coffee production is expected to recover during the 2026/27 marketing year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Colombian coffee production to increase 7.2 percent to approximately 13.4 million 60-kilogram bags in the marketing year beginning October 2026.
Exports are also projected at 13.4 million bags, while drier weather conditions are expected to support higher yields.
The forecast follows an estimated production level of 12.5 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, when excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and bean development.
The contrasting conditions across producing countries also highlight how El Niño can have different effects on coffee-growing regions across Latin America.
Vietnam Expands Intercropping to Strengthen Robusta Farmers
Amid growing climate risks, Vietnam’s coffee industry is expanding intercropping practices to help Robusta farmers manage production and price uncertainties.
NKG Vietnam currently works with around 16,000 Robusta farmers cultivating approximately 21,000 hectares in the Central Highlands.
Through a partnership with Tchibo, the program aims to support up to 4,000 smallholder farmers through intercropping, agricultural training, and climate-resilience initiatives.
According to cited 2024/25 data, intercropping is already practiced on approximately 87 percent of coffee farms in Dak Lak and 86 percent in Dak Nong.
The approach is expected to help farmers diversify their income while reducing exposure to extreme heat, drought, heavy rainfall, and coffee price volatility.
Kenya Ships Coffee Directly to Italy
In Africa, Kenya has taken a new step in coffee trade by shipping coffee directly to Italy.
Kenyan exporter SumSeron Coffee shipped an initial consignment of 20 containers directly to Trieste, bypassing traditional channels involving green coffee traders and auction systems.
The coffee was reportedly sold for more than US$9.50 per kilogram.
The move is part of Kenya’s efforts to improve returns for farmers while establishing more direct access to the European market.
Kenyan government aims to triple national coffee production to 150,000 metric tons annually by 2029. It also plans to increase domestic coffee consumption to 20 percent of annual production within five years.
Global Coffee Market Faces Complex Supply Dynamics
The latest developments underline the increasingly complex dynamics shaping the global coffee market.
Price movements continue to be influenced by the balance between Arabica and Robusta supplies, weather conditions, inventory levels, and harvest developments in major producing countries.
At the same time, coffee-producing nations are pursuing strategies to strengthen farmer resilience, diversify income sources, improve market access, and shorten traditional supply chains.
With climate volatility remaining a major concern, the global coffee industry is likely to remain sensitive to weather developments, production forecasts, and changes in consumer and trade patterns.(*)
